OpenAI CEO Altman 改口称 AI 净创造就业，Anthropic CEO 也修正早期言论

OpenAI CEO Altman is now "pretty sure" AI is net job-creating, which is quite the pivot from predicting mass layoffs

AI 导读

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman 表示，他“相当确信”AI 迄今为止净创造了就业，并承认“这并非我预期”。此前他曾警告 AI 影响可能快得“有点吓人”。Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei 也修正了早期言论，将自动化描述为生产力倍增器而非岗位杀手。然而，多项研究未发现 AI 对整体生产力或劳动力市场产生显著影响。一项多校联合研究指出，程序员和文案的就业危机始于 2022 年初，早于 ChatGPT 发布。耶鲁预算实验室也未发现与 AI 相关的就业市场变化。

推荐理由

Altman和Amodei几乎同时调头，从“AI消灭工作”变成“AI净增就业”，这个转向本身比任何研究都更能说明行业叙事在怎么变。

正文 · 原文

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman now says AI could create more jobs than it eliminates. Altman wrote he's "pretty sure" AI has been net job-creating so far. "This is not what I expected," he added, having previously warned that the impact could happen so fast that it's "potentially a little scary." Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has also walked back earlier statements, now calling automation a productivity multiplier rather than a job killer. He had also previously claimed AI would take over large portions of entry-level office jobs within a very short time, a claim that drew attention but little sympathy.

From job apocalypse to job engine: Altman adjusts his AI forecast. | Image: Screenshot

No studies so far show a significant AI impact on overall measured productivity or the labor market. A recent multi-university study found that the job crisis among programmers and copywriters started in early 2022, months before ChatGPT launched. The Yale Budget Lab also found no AI-related job market shifts.

AI-related layoffs have still happened, though. In some cases, money earmarked for workers got redirected to AI hardware. In others, companies needed an excuse that would play well with shareholders.

Sam Altman via X